Washington, D.C., 10/16/2025 - The latest SipSource forecasts provide quarterly projections of rolling 12-month 9L case depletion growth rates from Q3 2025 through Q3 2026 for each of seven categories and all core spirits. The product offers class- and class-price tier-level forward-looking views of industry trends. The forecasts utilize the most comprehensive data source in the industry, which comprises historical depletions data from 19 major wholesalers, NABCA sales, and 10+ macroeconomic indicators which affect consumer behavior. Machine learning and artificial intelligence leverage this information to provide accurate, forward-looking insights about growth.
Demonstrating the power of the SipSource forecasting product, most class-level long-term projections for the first half of 2025 made in Q3 2024 were >80% accurate. The product demonstrates improved performance as more data is collected, as the recent Q1 2025 refresh was >90% accurate in predicting Q2 2025 for most product classes, with a remarkable 99% accuracy mark for total core spirits.
The projections for the remainder of 2025 and the first three quarters of 2026 continue to show stabilizing negative growth rates for most classes, which represent a departure from steep declines from 2022-2024.
Specific insights include:
Total core spirits is expected to decrease to -4.39% rolling 12-month growth by the end of 2025, before leveling out to 4.12% rolling 12-month growth by Q3 2026.
Tequila/Agave will continue to experience sharp decreases in depletion growth rates, falling to roughly flat rolling 12m growth Q4 2025, and finishing Q3 2026 in negative territory. Despite decreases in depletions, Tequila/Agave will remain the strongest performing product class in the industry.
U.S. Whiskey and Scotch have exhibited some signs of recovery from sharp declines in 2024 in the first of 2025.
What to dive deeper with a SipSource Analyst? Contact Eric Schmidt at Eric.Schmidt@wswa.org.