Key Takeaways:
Wine and spirits are starting to diverge. While the overall market remains down, wine is showing signs of improvement, while spirits continue to face deeper revenue and premiumization pressure.
Premium spirits are taking the biggest hit. Spirits priced above $50 saw revenue decline 8.9%, with the $50–$99.99 segment down 9.5%—a sign that consumers are increasingly prioritizing value.
Wine has emerging bright spots—and the on-premise is outperforming. Champagne (+14.7%), Prosecco (+10.2%) and Sauvignon Blanc (+3.2%) are growing, while $50+ wine is up 0.9% in revenue. Across both categories, on-premise volume (-2.8%) is significantly outperforming off-premise (-7.5%).
At first glance, July brought more of the same for the U.S. wine and spirits market. Total wine and spirits volume declined 6.8% over the last 12 months, while revenue fell 6.1%. Over the last three months, volume was down 6.2% and revenue declined 6.1%.
Underneath those relatively stable topline numbers, however, an important divergence is emerging: wine and spirits are beginning to tell different stories.
Spirits remain under pressure. Latest three-month volume declined 5.7%, while revenue fell a steeper 7.1%. Both weakened from June, with revenue deteriorating by 130 basis points. The growing gap between volume and revenue points to continued pressure on premiumization as consumers instead prioritize value.
Price-tier performance reinforces that trend. Every spirits price segment is now down more than 5% in revenue, and the $50–$99.99 range declined 9.5%. Combined, spirits priced above $50 saw revenue fall 8.9% -- a sign that higher-priced bottles are taking a disproportionate hit.
Wine, while still challenged, is moving in a more encouraging direction. Latest three-month volume declined 6.8%,an improvement of 110 basis points from June, while revenue was down 4.2%. Unlike spirits, higher-priced wine continues to demonstrate greater resilience. Revenue trends improve significantly at $16 and above, with the $50+ segment growing revenue 0.9% over the latest 12 months.
There are also pockets of meaningful wine growth. Champagne revenue increased 14.7% in the latest three months, Prosecco grew 10.2%, and Sauvignon Blanc increased 3.2%.
One trend both categories share is the relative strength of on-premise sales. Total wine and spirits on-premise volume declined 2.8% over the latest 12 months, compared with a steeper 7.5% decline off-premise.
As we move through the second half of 2026, the key question is whether this divergence continues. Spirits need stabilization in both revenue and premium price points, while wine will look to build on improving trends and strength in sparkling and higher-priced segments.
The topline market may appear stable, but beneath it, wine and spirits are increasingly traveling different paths.