Key Takeaways
- Spirits are leading the improvement. Recent depletion trends show a moderating pace of decline, with select categories and mid-priced products demonstrating greater resilience.
- Wine’s challenges extend beyond consumer demand. Lower-priced wines remain under significant pressure, while declining points of distribution create an additional obstacle to category performance.
- The market is stabilizing, not recovering. Improving short-term trends and stronger on-premise performance offer encouragement, but sustained improvement will depend on broader demand and distribution gains.
September 2026 data from SipSource point to a U.S. wine and spirits marketplace that is beginning to stabilize, although improvement remains uneven across categories, price points and channels. Spirits are showing more encouraging short-term trends, while wine continues to face significant headwinds from declining demand and distribution losses.
Combined wine and spirits volume declined -6.1% over the trailing 12 months, while revenue fell 4.9%. More recent trends offer some encouragement: over the last three months, volume declined -4.8% and revenue fell -3.7%, reflecting an easing pace of decline, particularly in spirits.
Spirits Show Signs of Improvement
Spirits are leading the recent improvement. Over the last three months, volume declined -3.1% and revenue declined -3.5%, with several segments showing stronger performance. Bourbon, Tequila-Other and U.S. Whiskey-Other are among the categories demonstrating improving trends.
Price-tier performance also points to a more selective marketplace. Spirits priced between $20 and $29.99 have demonstrated greater resilience, while products in the $50 to $99.99 range continue to face greater pressure. The contrast suggests consumers are becoming more deliberate about where they spend, with value and price playing an increasingly important role in purchasing decisions.
While these trends are encouraging, improvement is not yet broad-based. Continued pressure in higher-priced segments underscores the current challenges facing premiumization and the importance of understanding how consumer preferences are evolving.
Wine Continues to Face Structural Challenges
Wine remains under greater pressure, with three-month volume declining -6.7% and revenue falling -4.2%. However, performance varies considerable across varietals and price points.
Sauvignon Blanc and Prosecco continue to demonstrate resilience, posting revenue gains of 5.9% and 4.8%, respectively. Champagne and sparkling wines are also showing relative strength in the on-premise channel, highlighting the importance of occasion and consumer preference in shaping category performance.
Price-tier trends reveal an increasing pronounced divide. Wines priced below $13 continue to experience substantial declines, while products priced at $16 and above have generally demonstrated greater resilience. At the same time, declining points of distribution, particularly among lower-priced wines and in the on-premise channel, present an additional challenge. The category’s performance reflects not only changing consumer demand, but also the ongoing pressure on product placement and availability.
Channel Performance Offers Another Important Signal
The on-premise channel continues to outperform off-premise, although performance remains negative across both. September also brought improvement in off-premise depletion trends, an encouraging development given the channel’s importance to overall industry performance.
As the industry enters the holiday selling season, comparisons against a particularly difficult fourth quarter of 2025 may provide some relief to year-over-year results. However, improved comparisons should not be confused with a return to growth.
A Market Finding Its Footing, Not Yet Rebounding
September’s results offer reason for cautious optimism. The pace of decline is moderating, spirits are showing improving trends and select wine categories continue to find demand. At the same time, the broader market remains unchallenged by uneven consumer demand, pressure across price segments and continued distribution losses.
The coming months will be an important test of whether these improvements can be sustained. For now, the data point to a market finding greater stability rather than one that has turned a corner.