According to SipSource®, January depletions came in soft, with little change to the 12-month volume trend for either Wine or Spirits. While that may not inspire confidence at first glance, a deeper look at the three-month revenue trends reveals a more nuanced story—one defined by bifurcation.
Key Takeaways:
- Wine and Spirits are diverging: Wine revenue is outperforming volume (price/mix resilience), while Spirits revenue is softening faster than volume, signaling pricing pressure in core segments.
- On-premise contraction is a growing headwind: Declining active accounts, led by the on-premise channel, are declining particularly for premium and higher-margin items that rely on on-premise visibility.
- Stabilization window ahead: Easier year-over-year comparisons in the coming months could help trends level out, even if acceleration remains unlikely in the near term.
Revenue momentum is beginning to diverge between the two categories. In Wine, revenue trends are gaining ground relative to volume. While overall volume remains challenged, the ability to stabilize—or in some cases improve—revenue suggests price/mix benefits or premium resilience may be helping offset softness in cases. By contrast, Spirits are seeing the opposite effect: revenue momentum is fading faster than volume. That deceleration is being driven largely by Core segments, where nine of eleven product classes are experiencing volume trends that are outperforming revenue trends. In other words, even where cases are moving, pricing power appears to be under pressure.
Another signal worth monitoring is Active Accounts, which have begun to decline, led by the on-premise channel. Fewer active outlets create an additional headwind, particularly for premium and higher-margin items that rely on on-premise visibility and trial.
That said, the path forward offers reason for measured optimism. The February and March 2025 comparisons to close Q1 are not overly challenging. For Spirits, the prior-year comparisons sit at -5.6% in volume and -4.8% in revenue. Wine faces comparisons of -8.1% in both volume and revenue. Similarly, the February through June comparisons to close the first half remain manageable: Spirits at -5.7% volume and -5.0% revenue; Wine at -7.4% volume and -6.5% revenue. Easier comparisons create an opportunity for trends to stabilize as we move deeper into 2026.
Looking ahead, several segments warrant close attention. Within Bourbon, month-to-month volatility has been pronounced, making it a key barometer for broader U.S. Whiskey performance. In Tequila, the “Other” segment saw a string of four consecutive growth months broken in January, while Reposado posted a soft start to the year—raising questions about whether momentum can return this spring. On the Wine side, Sauvignon Blanc has delivered two consecutive months of revenue growth, offering a potential bright spot in an otherwise pressured category.
The industry remains in a recalibration phase. Stabilization—not acceleration—may be the near-term goal. With manageable comparisons ahead and pockets of resilience emerging, the coming months will be critical in determining whether this transitional moment turns into a firmer foundation for the back half of the year.