As we approach the important holiday selling season, the beverage alcohol industry is undergoing a prolonged and perhaps profound transition. Once uplifted by consistent growth and premiumization, both the wine and spirits categories are now grappling with sustained declines driven by shifting consumer behaviors, a retail landscape under pressure, and uncertainty about the future.
Broad Declines Continue in 2025
Calendar year 2025 continues to be challenging for most Wine and Spirits segments. Trends in the first 9-months of 2025 remain soft according to SipSource data with combined Wine and Spirits volume down -7.2% and revenue down -5.8%. Spirits are faring better year to date with volume down -5.9% and revenue down -5.1%. Year-to-date Wine trends are down -8.5% in volume and down -6.9% in revenue.
The 12-month trends are better with combined Wine and Spirits down -6.2% in volume and down -4.9% in revenue. Individually, Wine and Spirits are down -7.5% and -4.8% in volume and down -5.9% and -4.3% in revenue respectively for the 12-month period.
Looking for Some Holiday Cheer
History shows consumers purchase incrementally more wine and spirits from October through December, during the holiday period, and tend to opt for more premium products. We anticipate this will hold true in 2025 as people look to celebrate with friends and family. While overall trends are challenging, there are segments that continue to outperform category trends.
Tequila continues to be the best performing Core Spirit led by Tequila-Reposado which is up +12.4% in volume over the last 12 months. While overall trends for Bourbon are generally flat, this segment continues to gain momentum and figures to have a strong holiday season. Like Tequila-Reposado, the premium price point for Bourbon makes is an attractive gift during the holiday season. The Sparkling Wine segment is also performing well; Champagne is up 3.6% and perennial consumer favorite Prosecco is up +3.4% in volume.
SipSource Spirits Forecast Accuracy Remains Strong
Understanding where you are going is obviously key to finding your destination, and the SipSource Spirits Forecast remains a very strong tool to predict future performance of the beverage alcohol industry. The latest forecast for Total Core Spirits (no Premixed Cocktails) was 99.2% accurate.
In conjunction with Kearney, SipSource has built a forecasting model that includes seven Core Spirits segments and Total Core Spirits. This level of precision underscores the strength and reliability of SipSource’s data and forecasting capabilities.
SipSource data and our forecast has been consistently correct – and has become the single source of what is happening in the industry. The insights it enables helps beverage professionals under what is actually happening in the market, empowering smart business decisions for all three tiers of the industry.
A Path Forward
Consumers are not very optimistic right now, about the economy or their own financial situations. But this pessimism won’t last forever. Despite the challenges our industry is facing right now, the categories showing resilience remind us that consumers are still willing to spend when products feel relevant, premium and purposeful. The holiday season offers a welcome boost and a chance for brands to re-engage shoppers in meaningful ways. While the road ahead requires adaptation, there is real opportunity for those who stay close to consumer needs and lead with innovation. Our industry may be in transition, but it’s far from standing still—and the next chapter can still be a promising one.