The second half of 2025 tested the resilience of the wine and spirits industry. For the first time in 2025, we experienced double-digit declines in two consecutive months (October and November), underscoring the pressure building across the system. While three-month trends were partially impacted by one fewer shipping day in November, the underlying softness in demand remains difficult to ignore.
From a volume perspective, the divergence between the first and second halves of the year is striking. January through June posted a combined Wine and Spirits volume decline of -6.5%, while July through November worsened to -9.7%. Encouragingly, revenue trends continue to outperform volume across most product classes, reflecting ongoing pricing discipline and mix benefits—but that alone cannot offset sustained volume pressure.
Looking back at December, growth trends were expected to improve, aided by one additional shipping day in 2025 compared to 2024. At the same time, year-ago comparisons offer limited clarity: December 2024 comps were already soft, with Spirits down -0.7% and Wine down -4.1%. Still, December began under the weight of two consecutive months of soft depletions, making execution critical.
Several product classes will be particularly important to watch entering 2026. Whiskey continues to show significant variability across segments—December may reveal whether any sub-segment can meaningfully break out. Tequila Reposado, which has been a bright spot, could reaffirm its growth trajectory if it experiences a strong holiday performance. Champagne also bears close monitoring, due to the celebration of the holidays; the open question is whether consumer takeaway will translate into sustained depletions.
Looking ahead in 2026, near-term fundamentals remain challenged. In Q1 2025, Spirits volumes declined -4.9% with revenue down -3.6%, while Wine saw a steeper -8.3% decline in both volume and revenue. These results set a conservative baseline for expectations as the industry recalibrates supply, pricing, and promotional strategies.
While December may not reverse the story from 2025, it can provide important signals about consumer engagement, category resilience, and where momentum may begin to rebuild in 2026.